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03/18/2010 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-seeded Robert Morris Colonials will have a tough task this afternoon in the South Region, as they take on the second-seeded Villanova Wildcats in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at the Dunkin' Donuts Center.
The Colonials will be making their second straight appearance in the Big Dance and the seventh overall in school history, which is the most by any team in Northeast Conference history. However, in the past NCAA Tournaments for Robert Morris the team is just 1-7. This season the Colonials tallied 23 overall victories and claimed their second straight NEC Tournament title.
The Wildcats will be making their sixth consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, which is one off the school mark of seven straight showings set from 1980 to 1986. This will be the 31st overall showing in the tournament for Villanova, which is 48-30 all-time. Last season the Wildcats made a tremendous run in the Big Dance, advancing to the Final Four before falling to eventual champ North Carolina, 83-69. Villanova enters this contest with a 24-7 ledger, but the team dropped five of its last seven matchups.
This will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools on the hardwood, and the winner of this contest will move on to the second round to battle either Richmond or Saint Mary's.
The success this season for Robert Morris can be attributed to the team's play at the defensive end of the floor, as the Colonials are limiting opponents to just 65.7 ppg. Teams are shooting 40.9 percent against the Colonials this season, but the team has done a solid job defending against the three-point shot, as opponents are connecting on just 32.3 percent from long range. Unfortunately at the other end of the floor, the team has faltered a bit. In fact, Robert Morris possesses just one player averaging double figures, and that is Karon Abraham, who comes into this game netting 13.4 ppg. Abraham is a dangerous weapon from behind the arc, and has connected on a sensational 44.2 percent of his three-point attempts (80-of-181). Rob Robinson is contributing 9.9 ppg and a team-high 5.5 rpg, but the scoring pool dries up after that, with the team producing just 68.5 ppg on the season.
The Wildcats have been one of the most dangerous scoring teams in the country from the start this year, and they possess a sensational guard tandem in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher. Reynolds is one of the best guards in the country, and is a proven leader on the floor, coming into this matchup leading the Wildcats with 18.5 ppg. Reynolds, who is shooting 39.9 percent from behind the arc, has also dished out 103 assists on the season. As for Fisher, he is very similar to Reynolds in the aspect of being a quick guard that can score a multiple of ways. Fisher, who is averaging 13.7 ppg on the year, has also distributed a team-best 125 assists on the year, while committing just 65 turnovers. Taking care of business down low has been Antonio Pena, who is chipping in 10.9 ppg, to go along with a team-high 7.4 rpg for Villanova, which as a whole is producing a healthy 82.5 ppg, behind a respectable 46.5 percent shooting effort.
<< Wake Forest and Texas do battle in 2010 NCAA Tournament
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The East Region of the 2010 NCAA Tournament
features a first-round matchup between the eighth-seeded Texas Longhorns and
the ninth-seeded Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Awaiting the winner of this tilt is a sec
<< Spiders and Gaels meet in South Region's first round
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - First-round action in the South Region will
take place this afternoon at the Dunkin' Donuts Center when the seventh-seeded
Richmond Spiders take on the 10th-seeded Saint Mary's Gaels.
The Gaels are participa
<< Midwest Regional affair pits Panthers against Rebels
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers
mix it up with the eighth-seeded UNLV Runnin' Rebels in the first round of the
NCAA Tournament's Midwest Regional tonight at the Ford Center. The winner of
this game w
<< Upset-minded Racers open tournament play against Commodores
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first team in Division I to reach 30 wins
this season, the Murray State Racers now have their sights set on number 31 as
they take on the Vanderbilt Commodores in the first round of the 72nd annual
NCAA Tourn
Vols set sights on Aztecs in first-round action >>
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In search of their first-ever NCAA
Tournament win, the 11th-seeded San Diego State Aztecs take aim at the sixth-
seeded Tennessee Volunteers in the first round at the Dunkin' Donuts Center.
The survivor of this
West Regional action features Bulldogs against Miners >>
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the
fourth consecutive year, the Butler Bulldogs kick off first-round action of
the 72nd annual event this afternoon against the Miners of Texas-El Paso at HP
Pavilion in San
Back injury forces Singh to withdraw >>
Palm Harbor, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vijay Singh withdrew from the Transitions
Championship before Thursday's first round because of a back injury.
Singh was set to tee off with defending champion Retief Goosen and reigning
U.S. Open winn
Slumping Sharks try to bounce back against Canucks >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the San Jose Sharks are coming off their most
lopsided defeat of the season, the Vancouver Canucks are dealing with the loss
of one of their biggest weapons.
San Jose will try to halt a three-game slide this evening
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
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